Keeping silent...but still have high demands

Mbeki is currently hosting talks between Zanu and the MDC. We demand these talks to provide some major results. Mbeki must be frank in his discussions with all parties, particularly where we are talking about false imprisonment, physical violence, and murder. As outside observers, we must allow these talks to run their course, so long as Mugabe is negotiating in good faith.

I am pleased that there are some conversations going on right now, and am praying for good news. But I will not be pleased if Mbeki allows Mugabe off the hook in these meetings. Real results are needed.

Mbeki's Failure

Great column by one of the world's most important foreign affairs voices. He correctly points the finger at Mbeki for deflecting international pressure against the Mugabe regime. Here are some quotes from the article:

"But when it comes to pure, rancid moral corruption, no one can top South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, and his stooge at the U.N., Dumisani Kumalo. They have done everything they can to prevent any meaningful U.N. pressure on the Mugabe dictatorship.

"As The Times reported, America’s U.N. ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, “accused South Africa of protecting the ‘horrible regime in Zimbabwe,’ ” calling this particularly disturbing given that it was precisely international economic sanctions that brought down South Africa’s apartheid government, which had long oppressed that country’s blacks."

Just as we expected...

South Africa helps to defeat the sanctions drive at the United Nations. Immediately thereafter, the Mugabe regime negotiates in bad faith in South Africa, which leads to an impasse. There really is no surprise there.

The defeat of the sanctions fragmented international opinion on the crisis on Zimbabwe. Prior to this moment, the world was united in condemning the violence. It is sad that South Africa played such a major role in defeating these sanctions. South Africa did not merely vote against the sanctions; rather, South Africa worked the corridors of the UN, lobbying other countries to reject the sanctions.

Their approach has failed to bring about any positive results. This failure has been duly noted, and has only galvanized opinion against South Africa's hosting of the World Cup. Indeed, the Zimbabwe Vigil in London has now adopted a boycott of the World Cup as one of its major themes, and has begun circulating a petition to move the World Cup. Visit them online at http://www.zimvigil.co.uk/.

A sister group will be demonstrating in front of the White House on the 26th of July, and will be circulating a petition asking for FIFA to move the 2010 World Cup. If you are in the area, please show up and support this cause.

Huge Gamble

South Africa successfully worked the halls of the UN to obtain a veto of the proposed sanctions against senior members of the Mugabe regime. Russia wasn't helpful, either, as its president Medvedev apparently overturned an earlier decision not to oppose the sanctions. He made this decision while in Japan - apparently Putin wasn't too happy about his puppet's decision and set him back on the proper course once he returned to the puppet house.

South Africa provided Russia and China with a good excuse to veto the sanctions. After all, if Zimbabwe's neighbours opposed the sanctions, how could the rest of the world support the sanctions. This is actually a pretty good line of reasoning...EXCEPT for the fact that Mbeki has not been an honest broker thus far.

South Africa's most recent behaviour makes it essential for Mbeki to achieve something substantial in the most recent round of talks. If not, South Africa will have once again let Mugabe off the hook after so much pressure had grown against his regime. If these current talks fail to yield any positive results, South Africa will have only compounded the problem in Zimbabwe. It will also be even more complicit in the assault on human rights and democracy.

Blatter hints at alternate location for the World Cup

FIFA president Sepp Blatter has stated that FIFA has already spoken with 3 countries regarding the possibility of hosting the 2010 World Cup on short notice. This is a pretty telling remark, as it shows that FIFA's confidence with South Africa is waning every day.

But why is South Africa being challenged so publicly now? The stadium construction woes, high crime rate, and energy crisis have always been known challenges for South Africa. When FIFA awarded the World Cup to South Africa, it knew that the country would have to face down these problems. None of South Africa's stadiums were up to FIFA World Cup standards at the time of the awarding of the World Cup. Eskom auditors were publicly stating that South Africa did not have the capacity to provide adequate power to the country beyond 2008 (they were wrong; they did not have adequate power beginning in 2006). While these problems, including the issue of crime, haven't been dealt with to FIFA's satisfaction, these factors alone would not justify moving the World Cup.

Instead, FIFA is concerned about the new problems that South Africa is facing. It is becoming clear that South Africa has not only failed in managing the known challenges of the World Cup, but that its government has also failed at managing new crises in the region. Zimbabwe was never publicly brought up when FIFA discussed the World Cup in the past. Suddenly, FIFA representatives are bringing up the crisis in Zimbabwe as a new factor that could have an impact on the success of the World Cup.

I don't like the idea of moving the World Cup. But South Africa is coming face to face with a crisis of leadership. In order to retain the World Cup, these challenges must be confronted by the South African government.

FIFA and South Africa beginning to feel the pressure of the boycott

FIFA and South Africa's 2010 representatives have both gone on the record in response to the pressure that they are feeling from threats of a World Cup boycott. This is a positive development, as it shows that both FIFA and South Africa are feeling the pressure of this grassroots led boycott. They have had to publicly dispell doubts regarding South Africa's role as host of the World Cup because of the pressure that they are feeling with regard to Mbeki's failure to pressure the Mugabe government.

FIFA's representative stated "The World Cup is a huge leverage, but there are limits ... the World Cup doesn't give you the power to push President Mbeki to say anything other than what he wants to say .... We can just say that we are concerned ... and we have to find a solution."

I find it positive that FIFA feels that the stability of Zimbabwe is crucial in South Africa's success in hosting the World Cup. I also feel that we need to continue our efforts so that press releases such as this become more common.

Is Mbeki finally waking up to reality?

I hope that my attempts to join with others in organizing and promoting a Boycott of the World Cup in 2010 is done with an even-handed approach. The 2010 World Cup should be a celebration for all of Africa, so it was always a tough decision to push for a boycott of the World Cup. But we have done so because we have recognized that Mbeki has been grossly negligent, at best, with regard to his response to Mugabe. At worst, he has been complicit in prolonging a tyrant's destruction of Zimbabwe.

This blog has always called on Mbeki to change his ways, leaving open the possibility that it is not too late for Mbeki and South Africa to get things right. There are some signs that Mbeki is in fact starting to get things right when it comes to Zimbabwe. I am encouraged by these reports that Mbeki has realized that Mugabe's future role in Zimbabwe should be restricted to that of a figurehead. In my personal opinion, this is more than he deserves. However, for Zimbabwe to recover from its wounds, it is obvious that its future leaders will have to be noble in dealing with those who have caused so much damage.

The world must continue to pressure Mbeki to act. The G8 has done this during the Japan summit. This pressure needs to continue, as it's obvious Mbeki's possible change of course came from external pressure, and not from any late night soul searching he did on his own.