Keeping silent...but still have high demands

Mbeki is currently hosting talks between Zanu and the MDC. We demand these talks to provide some major results. Mbeki must be frank in his discussions with all parties, particularly where we are talking about false imprisonment, physical violence, and murder. As outside observers, we must allow these talks to run their course, so long as Mugabe is negotiating in good faith.

I am pleased that there are some conversations going on right now, and am praying for good news. But I will not be pleased if Mbeki allows Mugabe off the hook in these meetings. Real results are needed.

Mbeki's Failure

Great column by one of the world's most important foreign affairs voices. He correctly points the finger at Mbeki for deflecting international pressure against the Mugabe regime. Here are some quotes from the article:

"But when it comes to pure, rancid moral corruption, no one can top South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, and his stooge at the U.N., Dumisani Kumalo. They have done everything they can to prevent any meaningful U.N. pressure on the Mugabe dictatorship.

"As The Times reported, America’s U.N. ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, “accused South Africa of protecting the ‘horrible regime in Zimbabwe,’ ” calling this particularly disturbing given that it was precisely international economic sanctions that brought down South Africa’s apartheid government, which had long oppressed that country’s blacks."

Just as we expected...

South Africa helps to defeat the sanctions drive at the United Nations. Immediately thereafter, the Mugabe regime negotiates in bad faith in South Africa, which leads to an impasse. There really is no surprise there.

The defeat of the sanctions fragmented international opinion on the crisis on Zimbabwe. Prior to this moment, the world was united in condemning the violence. It is sad that South Africa played such a major role in defeating these sanctions. South Africa did not merely vote against the sanctions; rather, South Africa worked the corridors of the UN, lobbying other countries to reject the sanctions.

Their approach has failed to bring about any positive results. This failure has been duly noted, and has only galvanized opinion against South Africa's hosting of the World Cup. Indeed, the Zimbabwe Vigil in London has now adopted a boycott of the World Cup as one of its major themes, and has begun circulating a petition to move the World Cup. Visit them online at http://www.zimvigil.co.uk/.

A sister group will be demonstrating in front of the White House on the 26th of July, and will be circulating a petition asking for FIFA to move the 2010 World Cup. If you are in the area, please show up and support this cause.

Huge Gamble

South Africa successfully worked the halls of the UN to obtain a veto of the proposed sanctions against senior members of the Mugabe regime. Russia wasn't helpful, either, as its president Medvedev apparently overturned an earlier decision not to oppose the sanctions. He made this decision while in Japan - apparently Putin wasn't too happy about his puppet's decision and set him back on the proper course once he returned to the puppet house.

South Africa provided Russia and China with a good excuse to veto the sanctions. After all, if Zimbabwe's neighbours opposed the sanctions, how could the rest of the world support the sanctions. This is actually a pretty good line of reasoning...EXCEPT for the fact that Mbeki has not been an honest broker thus far.

South Africa's most recent behaviour makes it essential for Mbeki to achieve something substantial in the most recent round of talks. If not, South Africa will have once again let Mugabe off the hook after so much pressure had grown against his regime. If these current talks fail to yield any positive results, South Africa will have only compounded the problem in Zimbabwe. It will also be even more complicit in the assault on human rights and democracy.

Blatter hints at alternate location for the World Cup

FIFA president Sepp Blatter has stated that FIFA has already spoken with 3 countries regarding the possibility of hosting the 2010 World Cup on short notice. This is a pretty telling remark, as it shows that FIFA's confidence with South Africa is waning every day.

But why is South Africa being challenged so publicly now? The stadium construction woes, high crime rate, and energy crisis have always been known challenges for South Africa. When FIFA awarded the World Cup to South Africa, it knew that the country would have to face down these problems. None of South Africa's stadiums were up to FIFA World Cup standards at the time of the awarding of the World Cup. Eskom auditors were publicly stating that South Africa did not have the capacity to provide adequate power to the country beyond 2008 (they were wrong; they did not have adequate power beginning in 2006). While these problems, including the issue of crime, haven't been dealt with to FIFA's satisfaction, these factors alone would not justify moving the World Cup.

Instead, FIFA is concerned about the new problems that South Africa is facing. It is becoming clear that South Africa has not only failed in managing the known challenges of the World Cup, but that its government has also failed at managing new crises in the region. Zimbabwe was never publicly brought up when FIFA discussed the World Cup in the past. Suddenly, FIFA representatives are bringing up the crisis in Zimbabwe as a new factor that could have an impact on the success of the World Cup.

I don't like the idea of moving the World Cup. But South Africa is coming face to face with a crisis of leadership. In order to retain the World Cup, these challenges must be confronted by the South African government.

FIFA and South Africa beginning to feel the pressure of the boycott

FIFA and South Africa's 2010 representatives have both gone on the record in response to the pressure that they are feeling from threats of a World Cup boycott. This is a positive development, as it shows that both FIFA and South Africa are feeling the pressure of this grassroots led boycott. They have had to publicly dispell doubts regarding South Africa's role as host of the World Cup because of the pressure that they are feeling with regard to Mbeki's failure to pressure the Mugabe government.

FIFA's representative stated "The World Cup is a huge leverage, but there are limits ... the World Cup doesn't give you the power to push President Mbeki to say anything other than what he wants to say .... We can just say that we are concerned ... and we have to find a solution."

I find it positive that FIFA feels that the stability of Zimbabwe is crucial in South Africa's success in hosting the World Cup. I also feel that we need to continue our efforts so that press releases such as this become more common.

Is Mbeki finally waking up to reality?

I hope that my attempts to join with others in organizing and promoting a Boycott of the World Cup in 2010 is done with an even-handed approach. The 2010 World Cup should be a celebration for all of Africa, so it was always a tough decision to push for a boycott of the World Cup. But we have done so because we have recognized that Mbeki has been grossly negligent, at best, with regard to his response to Mugabe. At worst, he has been complicit in prolonging a tyrant's destruction of Zimbabwe.

This blog has always called on Mbeki to change his ways, leaving open the possibility that it is not too late for Mbeki and South Africa to get things right. There are some signs that Mbeki is in fact starting to get things right when it comes to Zimbabwe. I am encouraged by these reports that Mbeki has realized that Mugabe's future role in Zimbabwe should be restricted to that of a figurehead. In my personal opinion, this is more than he deserves. However, for Zimbabwe to recover from its wounds, it is obvious that its future leaders will have to be noble in dealing with those who have caused so much damage.

The world must continue to pressure Mbeki to act. The G8 has done this during the Japan summit. This pressure needs to continue, as it's obvious Mbeki's possible change of course came from external pressure, and not from any late night soul searching he did on his own.

There is no crisis in Zimbabwe

The entire world knows that democratic institutions were attacked by the Mugabe regime. This story provides insight into how the fight against a democratic process was planned and executed. More than 10 days later, the wise South African President Thabo Mbeki declared that "there is no crisis in Zimbabwe".

The Zimbabwean army and state security apparatus mobilized against the citizens of Zimbabwe. They struck down democratic activists. They tortured people whose only crime was to cast a vote in an election. Babies were brutalized. People have gone missing. South African President Thabo Mbeki declared that "there is no crisis in Zimbabwe".

People were arrested by the state and held without charges. Treason charges were brought against political leaders. Recently elected MPs are currently being sought by the Zimbabwean government. People were forced to vote under the watchful eyes of war veterans. South African President Thabo Mbeki declared that "there is no crisis in Zimbabwe".

South Africa doubts need for U.N. action on Zimbabwe

In a telephone interview with Reuters, South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo indicated he would not back the U.S. draft, saying the very premise of the resolution was faulty.

"The biggest challenge of the resolution is the premise that the problem of the election is a threat to international peace and security," he said.

Note to the South Africa government:

The resolution does not merely address a flawed election. It addresses a crisis that has been boiling for years.

Even if you don't want to address the systematic violence that has been perpetrated by the Mugabe regime against democratic actors, you must admit that there have been threats to international peace and security. We've already begun to see tensions within the SADC block because of the Zimbabwe crisis. Because of Mugabe's tyranny, millions of people have been displaced, and have had to move to other countries. This has caused a destabalizing effect in the economies of Zimbabwe's neighbors.

One wonders what sort of internal crisis would justify international action using the standards of South Africa's government. The world was negligent in addressing the apartheid regime in South Africa, and it was only through activism that nations finally began to address a deep wrong. The world is being provided another opportunity to stand up and confront an evil regime. We cannot afford to be negligent once again.

Mbeki's silence destabalizes a region

South Africa's Thabo Mbeki has long has resisted international pressure to intervene more directly in the Zimbabwe crisis. He maintains that Zimbabwe's crisis is merely an internal dispute. Everybody in the SADC regions knows this is an absolute joke, as millions of Zimbabweans have poured out of Zimbabwe into neighboring countries in an effort to escape physical violence and economic disaster. Zimbabwe's crisis has been an international disaster from day 1.

Mbeki's innaction over Zimbabwe is beginning to fragment the SADC block. Botswana is taking steps to close off the Zimbabwe border and may soon terminate official relations with Zimbabwe. Zambia has also threatened such measures in the past. Other nations in the SADC region are split on their own courses of action, as the indisputed leader in the region, South Africa, has failed at marking a clear cut path out of the crisis. Even Mbeki's closest advisors have admitted that they are unsure of Mbeki's plans.

Yes, Thabo, HIV causes AIDS. Yes Thabo, Mugabe is a tyrant. It's time to accept reality.

South Africa Leading Opposition at UN to Sanctions on Zimbabwe

South Africa is continuing to blockade meaningful progress on Zimbabwe at the United Nations, and is actively fighting increased sanctions against the Zimbabwe leadership. ``The text is too over the top,'' South African Ambassador Dumisani Kumalo said in an interview. ``I don't think this is the kind of pressure that will work."

For once, I actually agree with South Africa...increased sanctions without South African cooperation will not work. What will work is for South Africa to stop babying Mugabe and his henchmen and to actually hold them accountable for their misdeeds. The UN sanctions might be flawed, but at least the rest of the world is trying to do something. South Africa, please, please give us a meaningful alternative to the sanctions. Your silence is deafening.

We continue to wait...

The observer groups from SADC and the AU both have stated that the Zimbabwean election was undemocratic. Mbeki must leverage the findings of these bodies to confront the Mugabe regime. World opinion is united against Mugabe, and even traditional allies within SADC have voiced their displeasure at the scope of violence in Zimbabwe. This is a critical moment for action - Mugabe cannot be allowed to escape by promising change. He has done this so many times before. Instead, we must see concrete steps that will end the crisis and start the process of reconciliation.

Mbeki, your moment has come. Prove to the world that you are a leader worthy of occupying the chair of your predecessor.